Turkey’s Eurasian Roots

By | JACK & JILL SMITH | The shifting sands of international relations often reveal complex realignments, and Turkey’s evolving position presents a compelling case study. For decades, Turkey has been a significant member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), anchoring itself firmly within the Western sphere. However, recent years have witnessed a perceptible drift, a recalibration of Turkey’s foreign policy that suggests a deliberate re-evaluation of its strategic alliances and a renewed interest in its Eurasian identity. This essay will explore the multifaceted dimensions of this shift, examining the historical context, the driving forces behind it, and the potential implications for Turkey and the broader geopolitical landscape. From a historical perspective, Turkey’s relationship with the West has been a complex tapestry woven with threads of both collaboration and contention. The establishment of the Republic of Turkey in 1923 by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk marked a decisive move towards Westernization, embracing secularism and aligning itself with European values. This orientation was further solidified during the Cold War when Turkey joined NATO in 1952, becoming a crucial bulwark against Soviet expansionism. This alliance provided Turkey with security guarantees and access to Western economic and military resources, fostering a period of relative stability and prosperity. Yet, this alignment was not without its challenges. Turkey’s aspirations for full membership in the European Union were repeatedly frustrated, encountering resistance due to concerns over human rights, the Cyprus dispute, and differing geopolitical priorities. Furthermore, Turkey’s internal dynamics, including the rise of political Islam and the increasing assertiveness of Turkish nationalism, began to create friction with its Western allies. The 2003 invasion of Iraq, which Turkey opposed, highlighted the divergence in strategic interests between Turkey and the United States. The early 21st century witnessed a gradual but significant shift in Turkey’s foreign policy orientation. The rise of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) under Recep Tayyip Erdoğan marked a turning point. While initially committed to EU membership, the AKP government increasingly prioritized Turkey’s regional influence and sought to diversify its international partnerships. This shift was partly driven by a desire to assert Turkey’s independence and autonomy in foreign policy decision-making, moving away from a perceived subservience to Western interests, which provides more flexibility for Turkey’s foreign policy and national interests.

The concept of “Eurasianism” has gained traction in Turkish political and intellectual circles, representing a vision of Turkey as a bridge between Europe and Asia, a key player in a multipolar world. This ideology emphasizes Turkey’s historical and cultural connections to the broader Eurasian region, including the Turkic republics of Central Asia, Russia, and the Middle East. It advocates for closer cooperation with these countries in areas such as trade, energy, and security, viewing them as potential partners in a new world order. Several factors have contributed to Turkey’s growing interest in Eurasianism. Firstly, the perceived decline of Western influence and the rise of new global powers, particularly China and Russia, have created a more fluid and competitive international environment. Turkey sees an opportunity to leverage its strategic location and historical ties to play a more significant role in this evolving landscape. Secondly, the increasing strain in Turkey’s relations with the West, particularly over issues such as human rights, democracy, and the Syrian civil war, has pushed Turkey to seek alternative partnerships. The West’s criticism of Turkey’s domestic policies, including the crackdown on dissent and the erosion of democratic norms, has fueled resentment and a desire for greater autonomy. Thirdly, economic considerations have played a significant role. Turkey is seeking to diversify its trade and investment partners, reducing its dependence on Western markets. The development of infrastructure projects, such as the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP), which connects Azerbaijan’s gas fields to Europe via Turkey, underscores Turkey’s role as an energy transit hub, enhancing its strategic importance. Turkey has also strengthened its economic ties with Russia, including the construction of the TurkStream gas pipeline and the development of the Akkuyu nuclear power plant. The implications of Turkey’s shift towards its Eurasian roots are far-reaching. For Turkey, it represents an attempt to redefine its national identity, assert its regional influence, and navigate the complexities of a changing world. It seeks to balance its relationships with the West and the East, pursuing a foreign policy based on pragmatism and national interests. However, this strategy carries risks. Turkey’s closer alignment with Russia and other authoritarian regimes could further strain its relations with the West, potentially leading to economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation. The West’s response could possibly provide a catalysis for a quicker pivot to Russia, with increased bilateral trading ties.

Moreover, Turkey’s assertive foreign policy in the Eastern Mediterranean, the Black Sea, and the Caucasus has led to tensions with its neighbors, raising concerns about regional stability. From a Western perspective, Turkey’s evolving foreign policy poses a challenge. NATO, which relies on Turkey as a key member, faces the dilemma of how to manage a relationship with a country that is increasingly at odds with its values and strategic interests. The West must balance its concerns over Turkey’s human rights record and its assertive foreign policy with the need to maintain a stable and cooperative relationship, given Turkey’s strategic importance. The future of NATO’s role in the region and its relationship with Turkey will be shaped by the evolving dynamics of this complex relationship. The broader geopolitical implications are also significant. Turkey’s shift towards Eurasianism is part of a broader trend of shifting alliances and the emergence of a multipolar world. It reflects the decline of Western dominance and the rise of new global powers, challenging the existing international order. The success of Turkey’s Eurasian strategy will depend on its ability to navigate the complex relationships within the Eurasian region, balancing its interests with those of Russia, China, and other regional players. Turkey’s strategic pivot towards Eurasia represents a significant shift in its geopolitical orientation, with profound implications for its military procurement and relationships with Western governments. This transition is not merely a matter of geographical realignment; it reflects a broader ambition to enhance Turkey’s influence in the region while simultaneously addressing its defense needs through diversified sources of military equipment. In recent years, Turkey has made substantial advancements in digenizing its defense industry, emerging as a notable arms exporter. This development has been driven by a desire for self-sufficiency and a reduction in dependency on Western military supplies. The Turkish government has invested heavily in domestic production capabilities, resulting in a range of advanced military technologies, including drones, armored vehicles, and naval systems. This shift has allowed Turkey to assert itself as a key player in the global arms market, particularly in regions such as Africa and the Middle East, plus it provides a gateway to all of the Asian markets. Turkey could become a nexus crossroads for their region.

In recent years, Turkey has made substantial advancements in its defense industry, emerging as a notable arms exporter. This development has been driven by a desire for self-sufficiency and a reduction in dependency on Western military supplies. The Turkish government has invested heavily in domestic production capabilities, resulting in a range of advanced military technologies, including drones, armored vehicles, and naval systems. This shift has allowed Turkey to assert itself as a key player in the global arms market, particularly in regions such as Africa and the Middle East. The pivot towards Eurasia may lead to a recalibration of Turkey’s military procurement strategies. As Turkey seeks to strengthen its ties with countries like China and Russia, it is likely to explore opportunities for collaboration in defense technology and equipment. This could manifest in several ways: ncreased Purchases from Non-Western Sources: Turkey may increase its procurement of military equipment from China and Russia, both of which have been eager to expand their influence in the region. The acquisition of advanced systems, such as Russia’s S-400 missile defense system, exemplifies this trend. Such purchases not only enhance Turkey’s military capabilities but also signify a shift away from reliance on Western suppliers. The pivot towards Eurasia may lead to a recalibration of Turkey’s military procurement strategies. As Turkey seeks to strengthen its ties with countries like China and Russia, it is likely to explore opportunities for collaboration in defense technology and equipment. This could manifest in several ways: Increased Purchases from Non-Western Sources: Turkey may increase its procurement of military equipment from China and Russia, both of which have been eager to expand their influence in the region. The acquisition of advanced systems, such as Russia’s S-400 missile defense system, exemplifies this trend. Such purchases not only enhance Turkey’s military capabilities but also signify a shift away from reliance on Western suppliers. Impact on Western Military Sales: The pivot to Eurasia could adversely affect Turkey’s relationships with Western governments, particularly the United States and European nations. As Turkey diversifies its sources of military equipment, Western countries may perceive this as a challenge to their influence in the region.

Consequently, they may impose restrictions or sanctions on military sales to Turkey, further complicating the dynamics of defense cooperation. Geopolitical Implications: Turkey’s growing ties with Eurasian powers may alter the balance of power in the region. By aligning more closely with Russia and China, Turkey could potentially leverage its position to negotiate better terms for military procurement and technology transfer. This could lead to a more multipolar defense landscape, where Turkey plays a pivotal role in shaping regional security dynamics. also stimulate further growth in Turkey’s domestic defense industry. As the country seeks to reduce its reliance on foreign military supplies, it will likely continue to invest in research and development, fostering innovation and technological advancement. This could enhance Turkey’s competitiveness in the global arms market and solidify its status as a regional defense hub. We, now understand the fallout which will take palace as Turkey begins to pivot to Eurasia and is poised to have significant ramifications for its military equipment sales and procurement strategies. By diversifying its sources of military supplies and strengthening ties with non-Western powers, Turkey is not only enhancing its defense capabilities but also reshaping the geopolitical landscape of the region. The interplay between Turkey’s domestic defense industry and its international partnerships will be crucial in determining the future trajectory of its military procurement and overall security posture. As this dynamic unfolds, it will be essential to monitor the evolving relationships between Turkey, Western governments, and its new partners in Eurasia. Will Turkey’s pivot to Eurasia begin to unraval NATO’s influence in the Eurasia sphere of dominance and across Asia in general? Turkey’s return to its Eurasian roots is a complex and multifaceted phenomenon driven by historical, political, economic, and strategic factors. It represents a re-evaluation of Turkey’s place in the world and a desire to assert its independence and autonomy in foreign policy decision-making. While this shift offers Turkey the potential to enhance its regional influence and diversify its partnerships, it also carries risks, including strained relations with the West and increased tensions with its neighbors. The future of Turkey’s foreign policy will be shaped by its ability to navigate the complexities of a changing world and to balance its interests with those of its diverse partners. The world watches with a keen eye, as Turkey’s path unfolds, and its impact on the global stage becomes increasingly evident.

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